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Celtics vs Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Preview: Boston favored to stay alive at home

It’s crazy to think that just two games ago the Boston Celtics led 2-1 in the NBA Finals, with a chance to push the Golden State Warriors to the brink of elimination in Game 4. Since Then Golden State – which was a +195 bet to win the championship at the time – took firm control of the series with 10-point win streaks, as the younger, inexperienced Celtics struggled to adapt.

Thursday’s Game 6 is at Boston’s TD Garden, where the C’s hope to keep their dream season alive. They enter the night as four-point favorites and have won seven of eight playoff series after a loss, the only blemish being Monday’s 104-94 loss.

Wiggins’ will crushes the Celtics

It goes without saying that you need your best players to answer the bell in a championship series. However, the X factor that ultimately decides the outcome is an actor that comes into its own. It happened in the first Finals of this core Warriors, when Andre Iguodala won Finals MVP.

While Andrew Wiggins probably won’t do enough to earn this accolade, he has been the difference maker in Golden State’s last two wins. He recorded 16 and 13 rebounds respectively, and led the Dubs in scoring with 26 points in the Game 5 series triumph. With +112 chances to go over 8.5 boards, maybe it’s time to hammer Wiggins on that. Nobody was able to keep him out of the glass. Other than the frequent whistles / resulting foul issues, I don’t know why that would change tonight if Wiggins continues to be aggressive.

Gifts at the heart of Boston’s problems

Here are some trends you’ll be excited about if you’re a Celtics fan. Your team is 3-0 in elimination matches; Golden State (+143) is 0-3 in the odds of closing the road lately. ALSO, with hats off to JJ Redick for that data, Boston is 1-7 in committing 16-plus turnovers in the playoffs, and 13-2 with 15 or fewer giveaways.

That seems like a pretty low bar to cross, but the C’s keep making the same mistakes. Al Horford has essentially disappeared as a viable scorer since blowing out for 26 points in Game 1. The rest of the frontcourt, which has a distinct size and depth advantage over Golden State, has been MIA offensively for the most part.

So without the big men intervening, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown tried and failed hard enough to reach the edge, leading to a ton of purely wasted goods. Tatum has always been turnover-prone (95, the most ever in the playoffs), and Brown is among the worst dribblers and loose ball handlers I can think of among top-tier perimeter players in the NBA.

Tip: Al Horford (OR 9.5 points) has scored 11+ points in 11 of his last 12 home games against the Warriors.

Despite missed Game 5, Curry is prohibitive MVP favorite

Giphy pictures.

If you like Boston winning tonight, better jump on the Finals MVP futures market for one of the Celtics players. I say Steph deserves the award for the first time even if the Warriors end up losing. That line of thinking took a hit when Curry crashed in Game 5, but it’s still a distinct possibility.

Curry is listed at -385 for MVP honors, followed by Tatum (+375), Wiggins (+1600) and Brown (+2000). The Warriors superstar is a -125 bet to score more points than Tatum. If you are looking for a player versus player confrontation, I would prefer Klay “Game 6” Thompson’s value (+175) to Brown’s.

Celtics stars must shine, especially against Draymond

If the Celtics’ frontcourt isn’t going to step up, they need their top perimeter trio to come together and score more effectively. It’s hard to deal with an all-around defensive powerhouse like Draymond Green.

For all of his own fights shooting from the field, Green has almost entirely made up for those with his defense against Tatum, Brown and Marcus Smart alone! Smart was the Defensive Player of the Year this season, and he shot pretty well throughout the Finals other than Game 2. I don’t know what to expect from the erratic Tatum or Brown at this point. Smart is the heart and soul of this Celtics team, so I like him over 15.5 points, as opposed to the higher hurdles for Tatum (27.5) and Brown (24.5).

NBA Plays of the Day: Warriors ML +143 and less than 210 points (-112)

It had been a tough NBA Finals for me in that space. In general, I walked away from the Warriors too soon. However, he got back on track in Game 5 by hitting the Warriors gap and underhand!

Sorry to break this to Boston fans, but I’m riding in Golden State. It looks like the Warriors have cracked the code, made the necessary adjustments and managed to cover even Steph’s night off last game. The Celtics’ overall shaky form at home doesn’t bode well. I feel like Golden State is smelling blood in the water and taking care of business tonight in another low-scoring duel.

Under bets are 14-4 in last 18 meetings between these teams, which actually means something since they’ve both had a lot of continuity over this time. I ride this. If you want to tone down this trend, head over to Barstool Sportsbook’s exclusives section for the Overs Club special.

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